Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the levels I had marked in the second half of the day, as the yen's volatility dropped significantly.

Today's data shows that the Bank of Japan's core consumer price index remained unchanged, which led to a slight weakening of the yen, though demand quickly returned. The figures came in worse than economists had forecast, and if there's no further progress in inflation growth, the Japanese central bank is unlikely to rush into raising interest rates. At the same time, the broader global context cannot be ignored. Mounting pressure from Trump and the lack of a trade deal with Japan could slow the economy, which also affects the BOJ's decisions. The central bank is forced to balance the need to stimulate domestic demand with the risks tied to a weakening yen and inflation growth driven by external factors.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 140.35 (green line on the chart), with the goal of rising to 140.92 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 140.92, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator tests the 139.86 level twice consecutively while the pair is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and likely result in an upward reversal. Expected growth targets are the 140.35 and 140.92 levels.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below 139.86 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a sharp drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 139.30, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip rebound).

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 140.35 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is overbought. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets in this case are 139.86 and 139.30.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.