EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis
The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Thursday than during the first half of the week, and the market was also relatively more technical. Since the beginning of the week, we've been repeating the same message—market movements have been unusually erratic and chaotic, and the market is simply ignoring any macroeconomic backdrop. While the second point remained unchanged on Thursday, the first was temporarily neutralized. It is hard to determine how long that will last.
Volatility on Thursday was noticeably lower. For most of the day, the euro continued to rise while the dollar declined, directly contradicting the macroeconomic data. The most important report of the day—U.S. durable goods orders—was unexpectedly much stronger than forecast. Growth amounted to +9.2% m/m. This figure is easily explained: by March, Trump's tariffs were already announced, prompting Americans to rush and purchase big-ticket items before prices surged. However, this doesn't change the essence of the report. The data significantly exceeded expectations yet failed to trigger any growth in the U.S. dollar—or even a market reaction. In short, there is no Trump news—no movement, and the dollar still doesn't grow.
After strong growth on Monday and a sharp decline on Tuesday—triggered by the firing and subsequent reinstatement of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair—the price returned to the sideways channel it had been trading in all last week. Therefore, in the absence of new information from Trump, the price may continue to move sideways.
Among Thursday's trading signals, we can highlight the bounce off the 1.1391 level, after which the price moved down a couple of dozen pips. While the move was small, such signals and profits are preferable to market storms and complete disregard for technical analysis.
COT Report
The latest COT report is dated April 15. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had long remained bullish. Bears barely managed to gain the upper hand but quickly lost it again. The bears' advantage has visibly diminished since Trump took office, and the dollar sharply declined. We cannot definitively say that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but COT reports reflect the sentiment of large players—which can change rapidly under the current circumstances.
We still see no fundamental factors justifying euro strength, but one significant factor is now driving dollar weakness. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downtrend won't reverse so easily.
The red and blue lines have now crossed again, signaling a bullish trend in the market. During the latest reporting week, the "Non-commercial" group increased its long positions by 6,800 and reduced its short positions by 2,500, resulting in a net increase of 9,300 contracts.
EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis
The EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend on the hourly timeframe, though there is no clear trendline or channel. On the daily chart, we can officially say that the downtrend has been canceled—something that would never have happened if Trump hadn't started a trade war. Thus, the fundamental backdrop has broken the technical picture—something rare but not impossible. There is currently very little logic or technical structure in the pair's movements across all timeframes, and macroeconomic data does not impact the pair's dynamics.
Trading levels for April 25: 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1321, 1.1391, 1.1474, 1.1607, 1.1666. Ichimoku lines: Senkou Span B (1.1182), Kijun-sen (1.1438). Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when determining trade signals. Also, don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal is false.
On Friday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. We've seen much more important reports recently that were utterly ignored. However, the market is still in chaos and disorder, and the EUR/USD pair may continue to trade sideways until new tariffs or Trump firings occur.
Illustration Explanations:
- Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
- Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
- Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
- Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
- Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.
