Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 145.20 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. However, this did not prevent selling the U.S. dollar, as the test happened after the sharp U.S. inflation slowdown data was released, which weakened the dollar's position.

Contrary to analysts' forecasts, the U.S. Consumer Price Index fell in March instead of rising. This put significant pressure on the U.S. dollar and further strengthened the Japanese yen. There's no need to remind you that the Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates, unlike the Federal Reserve, which leans toward rate cuts. The current environment allows the Fed to ease monetary policy by cutting rates, potentially stimulating economic growth.

Today's data on the slowdown in Japan's money supply growth had little impact on the market. Traders focus more on global factors such as U.S. inflation expectations and Donald Trump's trade policy.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 144.59 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 146.33 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 146.33, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and deep dips in USD/JPY.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 143.49 while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential and trigger an upward reversal—expected targets: 144.59 and 146.33.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the pair breaks below 143.49 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a sharp drop. The key target for sellers will be 142.22, where I plan to exit short positions and open a buy trade in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound). Pressure on the pair may return at any time.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 144.59 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward—expected targets: 143.49 and 142.22.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.