Trade breakdown and trading tips for the Japanese yen

The test of the 147.47 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point into the market. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 40 points.

Today's speech by FOMC member Mary Daly will be in the spotlight. However, it is unlikely to significantly impact the US dollar. Clearly, after Jerome Powell's address, further remarks by his colleagues are unlikely to draw much attention. Still, given recent market instability and inflation risks, it is unlikely that Daly will provide clear guidance on the Fed's near-term actions. This will certainly support the dollar. Investors will likely favor assets with more predictable returns and lower risk. Moreover, the global economic recovery outlook remains unfavorable.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 147.13 (green line on the chart) with a target of 147.83 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.83, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point reversal). The pair may rise as part of a bullish correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 146.67 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 147.13 and 147.83 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 146.67 (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 146.09, where I will exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal). Downward pressure on the pair is possible at any time today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 147.13 twice consecutively, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 146.67 and 146.09 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or point to manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or point to manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – it's important to monitor overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.