Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 143.49 price level coincided with the moment the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point into the market. As a result, the pair dropped toward the 142.22 target level.

A speech by John Williams, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is expected. Market participants typically scrutinize such remarks for any clues about potential adjustments to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and Williams' speech could shed light on the Fed's future intentions. In addition, data pointing to a decrease in U.S. producer price inflation may further weaken the dollar, creating favorable conditions for the Japanese yen to strengthen.

Combined with the Bank of Japan's expected tightening stance, this factor could lead to a significant capital flow from dollar-denominated assets into yen-based assets. In the long term, the trend of dollar weakening and yen strengthening could be supported by the U.S. lifting trade tariffs on Japanese goods.

For today's intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 143.28 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 144.51 (thicker green line). Around 144.51, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point pullback). A pair rally today is likely only if strong U.S. data is released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 142.52 twice in a row, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to 143.28 and 144.51 may then follow.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below 142.52 (red line), which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 141.16, where I will exit shorts and open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure may arise at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 143.28 twice, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop to 142.52 and 141.16 may follow.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset
• Thick green line – projected price to set a Take Profit or manually secure gains, as further growth is unlikely above this level
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset
• Thick red line – projected price to set a Take Profit or manually secure gains, as further decline is unlikely below this level
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important for Beginners:

Forex beginners must exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.

And remember, a clear trading plan is essential for successful trading—just like the one presented above. Making impulsive decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.