विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 05.11.2024

05.11.2024 02:57 PM

S&P500 ahead of game-changing event

So, the US presidential election has kicked off. Back in 1845, the US Congress mandated that presidential elections always be held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Currently, there is no clear frontrunner in the race, and the outcome remains unpredictable.

According to a nationwide NBC News poll conducted before the election, an equal number of voters are ready to support presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Vote counting in the US is expected to continue until the end of the week.

In financial markets, the US dollar is retreating, while futures on benchmark stock indices remain under selling pressure for the third consecutive day.

Economists suggest that if Trump wins, the dollar is expected to strengthen, whereas a Harris victory could lead to a temporary weakening.

Until the election outcome clarifies who won this presidential race and the votes are fully counted, investors are adopting a wait-and-see stance, at least until the end of today's trading day in the US.

We can see this cautious approach in the dynamic of the major US stock indices. For instance, the broad-profile stock index, S&P 500, is now trading within a range of 5,713.00 to 5,776.00 for the third trading day in a row after a sharp decline at the end of last week in light of contradictory data on US GDP growth, PCE indices, manufacturing PMI, and a weak employment report from the Department of Labor.

Notably, this correction followed a new record high near the 5,881.00 mark printed in mid-October.

Investors are also in the wait-and-see mood ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, November 7. The outcome of the US elections will undoubtedly influence the decisions of the FOMC policy meeting.

As noted earlier, economists associate Trump's victory with a possible strengthening of the US dollar and a deeper correction in the US stock market as Trump plans to step up pressure on China and engage in trade wars by imposing lofty tariffs on imports. This, on the one hand, could boost profits for domestic producers but also accelerate inflation and raise borrowing costs.

If Kamala Harris wins, there will likely be no abrupt changes in the current US economic policy, and the Federal Reserve will go ahead with its accommodative monetary policy.

The Fed is currently expected to lower the official funds rate by another 0.25%. However, uncertainty now surrounds the Fed's forward guidance. Consequently, the accompanying statements and press conference—scheduled to start 30 minutes after the policy decision is announced at 6:00 p.m. (GMT) on Thursday—will be of great interest.

In other words, market participants are in suspense regarding the Fed's next moves, the dollar's trajectory, and US stock indices.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 (displayed as #SPX on the trading platform) is trading within a sustained bullish zone in the short-term, medium-term, long-term, and global perspectives. A breakout above the upper border of the specified range and the 5,776.00 level may signal new buying opportunities. A breakout above the recent record high of 5,881.00 would serve as confirmation.

In an alternative scenario, a deeper downward correction cannot be ruled out, which can often be rapid.

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