empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
15.04.2025 09:46 AM
Trump Will Either Win or Lose. Is There No Middle Ground? (Potential Renewed Decline in #SPX and Bitcoin)
Open trading account Open demo account

On Monday, markets calmed slightly amid Donald Trump's apparent backpedaling on the trade barriers he had imposed on America's trading partners. It gives the impression that the U.S. president is starting to retreat. But is that the case?

Clearly, the U.S. orchestrated the chaos surrounding the tariffs, primarily targeting China but also aimed at Europe and India. The latter two have traditionally shown weakness and remain highly dependent on Washington. Market speculators warmly welcomed Trump's decision to grant a 90-day delay, and the subsequent pause in implementing high tariffs on computers, components, and consumer electronics helped fuel gains in tech giants' shares, which lifted other sectors and global financial markets overall.

But is Trump truly backing down, with his trade war slowly fading away or becoming a more localized conflict focused on Beijing?

In a previous article, I mentioned the distinctive psychological profile of the 47th president of the United States, which plays a huge role in America's decision-making. Whether we like it or not, that's a fact. It's already clear that Trump is maneuvering. In simpler terms, he will continue to pursue his goals — by fair means or foul. He will manipulate, make promises, break them, and so on. This is all part of American political tradition and typical of its presidents. Therefore, we should expect continued pressure on China and other trade partners as Trump seeks to impose his interests through strong-arm tactics. That means periods of easing will alternate with increased pressure. The question is whether this tactic will be effective and how it will affect market dynamics.

It seems investors are aware of the uncertain prospects of Trump's trade war, so it's unlikely we'll see lasting optimism. Most likely, any local stock market rallies will remain under the shadow of trade war uncertainty. The start of earnings season should soon offer some clarity. Yes, the trade war began in March, which isn't enough time to fully assess its impact — but if significant negative consequences begin to emerge, stocks may struggle to advance.

A similar picture will likely unfold in the commodities market. Cryptocurrencies will also remain under pressure, as they are susceptible to trade war rumors and developments. As for the U.S. dollar, after last week's decline, it has begun to consolidate below the key psychological level of 100.00.

I have serious doubts about Trump's alleged retreat. I believe that the chaos in the markets will persist. It is unclear how long this will continue. However, we can confidently say that this situation will persist until the U.S. president either reaches agreements with key trade partners or his approach to "Making America Great Again" collapses under the weight of domestic problems and mounting resistance.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is hovering around 5397.70. If it fails to rebound from this level and resume its upward movement, we may see a local reversal and decline toward 5148.55 amid deteriorating market sentiment. The sell trigger could be a drop below 5369.56.

Bitcoin

The token is trading below the 86088.50 mark. Deteriorating market sentiment may lead to a price reversal and a decline toward 82120.85. The sell trigger could be a breakdown below 85095.00.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on April 25, 2025 The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted into a bullish formation. It's safe to say that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy
Chin Zhao
20:26 2025-04-25 +02:00
2725
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on April 25, 2025 The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture closely resembles that of the EUR/USD pair. Until February
Chin Zhao
20:21 2025-04-25 +02:00
2335
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold maintains a bearish tone today, though it has slightly recovered from the daily low, climbing back above the $3300 level. Investors continue to hope for a potential de-escalation
Irina Yanina 12:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Market Has Nowhere Left to Run

While Donald Trump and Beijing are still trying to figure out whether trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are happening at all, the S&P 500 continues to climb
Marek Petkovich 11:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The U.S. Dollar Rises — Here's Why

The U.S. dollar strengthened against a number of global currencies, as did the U.S. stock market, following reports that the Chinese government is considering suspending its 125% tariffs on certain
Jakub Novak 11:31 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Why Could Gold Prices Drop Significantly? (There's a chance gold will continue to decline while the CFD on the NASDAQ 100 futures contract may rise)

The beginning of actual negotiations could lead to a significant drop in gold prices in the near future. In previous articles, I suggested that the previously surging price of gold
Pati Gani 10:14 2025-04-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 25: The Fed Is Starting to Worry for Real

The GBP/USD currency pair traded higher on Thursday, remaining near its 3-year highs. Despite the British pound's strong rally in recent months, corrections are still rare in the forex market
Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – April 25: America Files a Lawsuit Against Trump

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade calmly on Thursday, although volatility remained relatively high. This week, the US dollar showed some signs of recovery—something that could already be considered
Paolo Greco 07:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but this doesn't matter, as the market continues to ignore 90% of all publications. Among the more or less significant reports today
Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Yen Is Looking Stronger and Stronger

The nationwide Consumer Price Index published last week showed accelerated core inflation in March—from 2.6% to 2.9%. Inflationary pressure is increasing, supporting the case for further interest rate hikes
Kuvat Raharjo 01:23 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Canada Awaits Election Results. USD/CAD Outlook

Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected. The accompanying statement was neutral in tone, emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Confidence is hard to maintain
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2

The Australian Dollar Could Suffer If the U.S.-China Trade War Escalates

U.S. President Donald Trump once again commented on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, openly expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts. Another public expression of disapproval of the Fed's
Kuvat Raharjo 00:59 2025-04-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget