Forex Analysis & Reviews: 26.03.2025 - Markets Won't Rush Headfirst...

Live Chat

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

26.03.2025 08:00 AM

Markets Won't Rush Headfirst into the Fire

Donald Trump has dealt such a heavy blow to globalization that conditions and outlooks for the future have changed—now divided along territorial lines. While European banks believe the S&P 500's decline will continue, their American counterparts argue that the time to sell the rally is over. In both cases, tariffs play a central role.

JP Morgan sees the risk of a renewed correction in the broad stock index as low, while Morgan Stanley considers the S&P 500 rally to be gaining momentum, expecting clarity on the White House's tariffs after April 2. The idea is that markets mostly feared the approach of import duties. Once that materializes, there'll be nothing left to fear. "The anticipation of death is worse than death itself." Time to buy U.S. stocks! Increasing the likelihood of consolidation.

In contrast, Swiss bank UBS and UK-based HSBC remain in the bearish camp. UBS cut its S&P 500 forecast to 5,300, citing warning signs in the latest U.S. macro data, which they argue justify selling the index. HSBC claims the chances of uncertainty disappearing after April 2 are slim. Ongoing tariff noise will affect American business and the economy, leading to further stock declines.

S&P 500 Forecast Trends

The Wall Street consensus expects a 13% rise from current levels to 6,539. Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus target is the most bullish, at 7,100, while Stifel's Barry Bannister's target is the most bearish, at 5,500.

Overall, it must be acknowledged that markets have absorbed the negative impact of Donald Trump's policies without the upside. We're talking about a cooling U.S. economy, fading hopes for additional fiscal stimulus from Washington, an unstable tariff strategy, and an unexpectedly strong response from Europe. All this has led to capital outflows from the New World to the Old, contributing to the S&P 500's decline. Is the rough patch for the broad index over?

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Dynamics

Markets had been climbing on rumors of less severe White House tariffs than previously feared. Trump mentioned potential exemptions but then stated he doesn't like granting them. Combined with the consumer confidence index dropping to a four-year low, this clipped the wings of S&P 500 buyers.

Until the import tariff situation is clearer, the chance of the broad index consolidating remains high. Few investors are willing to jump into the fire ahead of such a key event, making choppy, directionless fluctuations more probable.

Technically, the bulls' counterattack continues on the S&P 500 daily chart. Traders who opened long positions from 5,670 are "sitting pretty." However, if the index bounces off resistance levels — the pivot zones at 5,815, 5,835, and 5,885 — it may trigger a reversal and shift toward selling.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.